Europhys. Lett.
Volume 68, Number 5, December 2004
Page(s) 611 - 617
Section General
Published online 05 November 2004
Europhys. Lett., 68 (5), pp. 611-617 (2004)
DOI: 10.1209/epl/i2004-10269-3

Using synchronization to improve the forecasting of large relaxations in a cellular-automaton model

Álvaro González1, Miguel Vázquez-Prada2, Javier B. Gómez1 and Amalio F. Pacheco2

1  Departamento de Ciencias de la Tierra, Universidad de Zaragoza Pedro Cerbuna, 12, 50009 Zaragoza, Spain
2  Departamento de Física Teórica and BIFI, Universidad de Zaragoza Pedro Cerbuna, 12, 50009 Zaragoza, Spain

received 2 August 2004; accepted in final form 11 October 2004
published online 5 November 2004

A new forecasting strategy for stochastic systems is introduced. It is inspired by the concept of synchronization, developed in the area of Dynamical Systems, and by the earthquake forecasting algorithms in which different pattern recognition functions are used for identifying seismic premonitory phenomena. In the new strategy, copies (clones) of the original system (the master) are defined, and they are driven using rules that tend to synchronize them with the master dynamics. The observation of definite patterns in the state of the clones is the signal for connecting an alarm in the original system that efficiently marks the impending occurrence of a catastrophic event. The power of this method is quantitatively illustrated by forecasting the occurrence of the largest relaxations in the so-called Minimalist Model.

02.50.Ey - Stochastic processes.
05.45.Xt - Synchronization; coupled oscillators.
91.30.Px - Phenomena related to earthquake prediction.

© EDP Sciences 2004