Testing the persistence in earthquake catalogs: The Iberian PeninsulaA. Jiménez1, 2, K. F. Tiampo3, S. Levin3 and A. M. Posadas1, 2, 4
1 Department of Applied Physics, University of Almería - Almería, Spain
2 Andalusian Institute of Geophysics and Seismic Disasters Prevention - Spain
3 Department of Earth Sciences Biological and Geological Sciences University of Western Ontario - London, Canada
4 "Henri Poincaré" Chair of Complex Systems, University of La Havana - Cuba
received 12 July 2005; accepted in final form 22 November 2005
published online 14 December 2005
The nature of the long-run correlations in a seismic catalog (the Iberian Peninsula catalog recorded from 1970 to 2001) is analyzed by means of the Hurst exponent. Different techniques, tested with simulated time series, are used to calculate this parameter, so that the results are reliable. We find that there is strong correlation in the region, and that small earthquakes are very important to the stress transfers. In addition, it is shown that predictability in an earthquake system is a function of the relationship between magnitude and energy, and that seismicity rate, or number of events, provides the best measure of this predictability.
05.40.-a - Fluctuation phenomena, random processes, noise, and Brownian motion.
91.30.Dk - Seismicity: space and time distribution.
89.75.Da - Systems obeying scaling laws.
© EDP Sciences 2006