Order parameter fluctuations of seismicity in natural time before and after mainshocks
Solid State Section and Solid Earth Physics Institute, Physics Department, University of Athens Panepistimiopolis, Zografos 157 84, Athens, Greece, EU
Accepted: 16 August 2010
It is widely accepted that the observed earthquake scaling laws indicate the proximity of the system to a critical point. Using the order parameter (OP) for seismicity suggested on the basis of natural time as well as the detrended fluctuation analysis of the magnitude time-series, we investigate the behavior of seismicity before and after significant earthquakes. The analysis reveals that the fluctuations of the OP before major earthquakes exhibit a characteristic feature which, if quantified properly, may be used as decision variable to predict the occurrence of a large earthquake in the next time step based solely on the magnitudes of previous earthquakes.
PACS: 91.30.Ab – Theory and modeling, computational seismology / 89.75.Da – Systems obeying scaling laws / 95.75.Wx – Time series analysis, time variability
© EPLA, 2010