Volume 45, Number 1, January I 1999
|Page(s)||1 - 5|
|Published online||01 September 2002|
Are financial crashes predictable?
Science & Finance - 109-111, rue Victor Hugo, 92535 Levallois Cedex, France
2 Capital Fund Management - 109-111, rue Victor Hugo, 92535 Levallois Cedex, France
3 Institut de Physique Théorique, École Polytechnique Fédérale, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
4 Service de Physique de l'État Condensé, Centre d'études de Saclay, Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex, France
Accepted: 28 October 1998
We critically review recent claims that financial crashes can be predicted using the idea of log-periodic oscillations or by other methods inspired by the physics of critical phenomena. In particular, the October 1997 “correction” does not appear to be the accumulation point of a geometric series of local minima.
PACS: 02.50.-r – Probability theory, stochastic processes and statistics / 01.50.Kn – Testing theory and techniques / 89.90.+n – Other areas of general interest to physicists
© EDP Sciences, 1999
Current usage metrics show cumulative count of Article Views (full-text article views including HTML views, PDF and ePub downloads, according to the available data) and Abstracts Views on Vision4Press platform.
Data correspond to usage on the plateform after 2015. The current usage metrics is available 48-96 hours after online publication and is updated daily on week days.
Initial download of the metrics may take a while.