| Issue |
Europhys. Lett.
Volume 45, Number 1, January I 1999
|
|
|---|---|---|
| Page(s) | 1 - 5 | |
| Section | General | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1209/epl/i1999-00122-9 | |
| Published online | 01 September 2002 | |
Are financial crashes predictable?
1
Science & Finance - 109-111, rue Victor Hugo, 92535 Levallois Cedex, France
2
Capital Fund Management - 109-111, rue Victor Hugo, 92535 Levallois Cedex, France
3
Institut de Physique Théorique, École Polytechnique Fédérale, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
4
Service de Physique de l'État Condensé, Centre d'études de Saclay, Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex, France
Received:
8
July
1998
Accepted:
28
October
1998
We critically review recent claims that financial crashes can be predicted using the idea of log-periodic oscillations or by other methods inspired by the physics of critical phenomena. In particular, the October 1997 “correction” does not appear to be the accumulation point of a geometric series of local minima.
PACS: 02.50.-r – Probability theory, stochastic processes and statistics / 01.50.Kn – Testing theory and techniques / 89.90.+n – Other areas of general interest to physicists
© EDP Sciences, 1999
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