Volume 51, Number 6, September II 2000
|Page(s)||595 - 601|
|Published online||01 September 2002|
Detecting non-linear structure and predicting turbulent gusts in surface wind velocities
Max-Planck-Institut für Physik komplexer Systeme
Nöthnitzer Str. 38, D-01187 Dresden, Germany
Accepted: 24 July 2000
We present a new approach, based on a locally low-dimensional prediction scheme, which was originally developed for deterministic chaotic signals, to detect the deterministic structure of local surface wind velocities. By exploiting properties of the signal which mimic the deterministic structure created by non-linear coherent effects of a turbulent fluid and by resolving the strong inherent non-stationarity as a sequence of different dynamical regimes, short time predictions of future wind velocities can be performed. Although on average no reduction of the prediction error can be achieved using a non-linear model instead of a linear stochastic one, intermittent gusts can be predicted with significantly higher accuracy. An asymmetry in the predictability is observed, which suggests that an increase of the velocity is rather deterministic, whereas the subsequent decrease is dominated by a stochastic behaviour.
PACS: 05.45.Tp – Time series analysis / 47.27.Nz – Boundary layer and shear turbulence / 92.60.Gn – Winds and their effects
© EDP Sciences, 2000
Current usage metrics show cumulative count of Article Views (full-text article views including HTML views, PDF and ePub downloads, according to the available data) and Abstracts Views on Vision4Press platform.
Data correspond to usage on the plateform after 2015. The current usage metrics is available 48-96 hours after online publication and is updated daily on week days.
Initial download of the metrics may take a while.