| Issue |
EPL
Volume 92, Number 3, November 2010
|
|
|---|---|---|
| Article Number | 30008 | |
| Number of page(s) | 6 | |
| Section | General | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1209/0295-5075/92/30008 | |
| Published online | 29 November 2010 | |
Record-breaking temperatures reveal a warming climate
Institute for Theoretical Physics, University of Cologne - 50937 Köln, Germany, EU
Received:
26
July
2010
Accepted:
25
October
2010
We present a mathematical analysis of records drawn from independent random variables with a drifting mean. To leading order the change in the record rate is proportional to the ratio of the drift velocity to the standard deviation of the underlying distribution. We apply the theory to time series of daily temperatures for given calendar days, obtained from historical climate recordings of European and American weather stations as well as re-analysis data. We conclude that the change in the mean temperature has increased the rate of record-breaking events in a moderate but significant way: for the European station data covering the time period 1976–2005, we find that about 5 of the 17 high temperature records observed on average in 2005 can be attributed to the warming climate.
PACS: 05.40.-a – Fluctuation phenomena, random processes, noise, and Brownian motion / 92.60.Ry – Climatology, climate change and variability / 02.50.Ey – Stochastic processes
© EPLA, 2010
Current usage metrics show cumulative count of Article Views (full-text article views including HTML views, PDF and ePub downloads, according to the available data) and Abstracts Views on Vision4Press platform.
Data correspond to usage on the plateform after 2015. The current usage metrics is available 48-96 hours after online publication and is updated daily on week days.
Initial download of the metrics may take a while.