Volume 104, Number 5, December 2013
|Number of page(s)||5|
|Published online||17 December 2013|
Outbreaks of coinfections: The critical role of cooperativity
1 Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems - Dresden, Germany
2 Faculty of Electrical and Computer Engineering, TU Dresden - Dresden, Germany
3 JSC, FZ Jülich - D-52425 Jülich, Germany
Received: 15 November 2013
Accepted: 30 November 2013
Modeling epidemic dynamics plays an important role in studying how diseases spread, predicting their future course, and designing strategies to control them. In this letter, we introduce a model of SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) type which explicitly incorporates the effect of cooperative coinfection. More precisely, each individual can get infected by two different diseases, and an individual already infected with one disease has an increased probability to get infected by the other. Depending on the amount of this increase, we prove different threshold scenarios. Apart from the standard continuous phase transition for single-disease outbreaks, we observe continuous transitions where both diseases must coexist, but also discontinuous transitions are observed, where a finite fraction of the population is already affected by both diseases at the threshold. All our results are obtained in a mean-field model using rate equations, but we argue that they should hold also in more general frameworks.
PACS: 05.45.Xt – Synchronization; coupled oscillators / 89.75.Hc – Networks and genealogical trees / 87.23.Cc – Population dynamics and ecological pattern formation
© EPLA, 2013
Current usage metrics show cumulative count of Article Views (full-text article views including HTML views, PDF and ePub downloads, according to the available data) and Abstracts Views on Vision4Press platform.
Data correspond to usage on the plateform after 2015. The current usage metrics is available 48-96 hours after online publication and is updated daily on week days.
Initial download of the metrics may take a while.