Volume 134, Number 3, May 2021
|Number of page(s)||7|
|Section||Electromagnetism, Optics, Acoustics, Heat Transfer, Classical Mechanics, and Fluid Dynamics|
|Published online||15 July 2021|
Dragon-king extreme events as precursors for catastrophic transition
1 Department of Aerospace Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Madras - Chennai 600036, India
2 Department of Physics and Astrophysics, University of Delhi - Delhi 110007, India
3 Department of Mechanical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Ropar - Punjab 140001, India
Received: 23 February 2021
Accepted: 15 April 2021
Unexpected catastrophic transitions are often observed in complex systems. However, the prediction of such transitions is difficult in practice. Here, we find a special kind of extreme events with a dragon-king probability distribution that occur just prior to a catastrophic transition and, hence, can serve as its precursor. To illustrate the application of dragon kings as a precursor, we consider a practical experimental thermo-fluid system and a theoretical model of coupled logistic maps with quasi-periodic forcing, both systems displaying a catastrophic transition.
© 2021 EPLA
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