Issue |
EPL
Volume 149, Number 1, January 2025
|
|
---|---|---|
Article Number | 13001 | |
Number of page(s) | 7 | |
Section | Fluid and nonlinear dynamics | |
DOI | https://doi.org/10.1209/0295-5075/ada4d3 | |
Published online | 20 January 2025 |
Analog-based forecasting of turbulent velocity: Relationship between unpredictability and intermittency
1 Department of Mathematical and Electrical Engineering, IMT Atlantique, Lab-STICC, UMR CNRS 6285 655 Av. du Technopôle, Plouzané, F-29280, Bretagne, France
2 Odyssey, Inria/IMT Atlantique - 263 Av. Général Leclerc, Rennes, F-35042, Bretagne, France
3 ENS de Lyon, CNRS, LPENSL, UMR5672 - F-69342, Lyon cedex 07, France
4 CNRS, ENS de Lyon, LPENSL, UMR5672 - F-69342, Lyon cedex 07, France
Received: 11 September 2024
Accepted: 2 January 2025
This study evaluates the performance of analog-based methodologies to predict, in a statistical way, the longitudinal velocity in a turbulent flow. The data used comes from hot-wire experimental measurements from the Modane wind tunnel. We compared different methods and explored the impact of varying the number of analogs and their sizes on prediction accuracy. We illustrate that the innovation, defined as the difference between the true velocity value and the prediction value, highlights particularly unpredictable events that we directly link with extreme events of the velocity gradients and so to intermittency. A statistical study of the innovation indicates that while the estimator effectively seizes linear correlations, it fails to fully capture higher-order dependences. The innovation underscores the presence of intermittency, revealing the limitations of current predictive models and suggesting directions for future improvements in turbulence forecasting.
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