Volume 131, Number 6, September 2020
|Number of page(s)||6|
|Section||Interdisciplinary Physics and Related Areas of Science and Technology|
|Published online||03 November 2020|
A Hawkes process model for the propagation of COVID-19: Simple analytical results
Instituto de Física, Departamento de Física Química, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México 04510 Coyoacán, Mexico City, Mexico
Received: 29 July 2020
Accepted: 5 October 2020
We present a model for the COVID-19 epidemic that offers analytical expressions for the newly registered and latent cases. This model is based on an epidemic branching process with latency that is greatly simplified when the bare memory kernel is given by an exponential function as observed in this pandemic. We expose the futility of the concept of “bending the curve” of the epidemic as long as the number of latent cases is not depleted. Our model offers the possibility of laying out different scenarios for the evolution of the epidemic in different countries based on the most recent observations and in terms of only two constants obtained from clinical trials.
PACS: 89.75.Hc – Networks and genealogical trees / 89.75.-k – Complex systems / 02.50.Ga – Markov processes
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